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NOFT or Ninja Order Flow Traders is part of the latest and zaniest craze in technical analysis...Institutional Order Flow Analysis. What exactly does that mean? Apparently today's trading hipsters all seem to be able to make big bucks taking advantage of hedge funds and large banks. Just buy the magic indicators and you will be able to miraculously witness the hidden actions of the big players. Unfortunatley, I have yet to find even a single one of these miraculous order flow traders that can produce a verifiable track record of trading success. NOFT has zero track record of ever producing a profit with their magic indicators, and the funded trader program is basically a none functioning pipe dream.
Thanks for reading today’s review of NOFT Traders. What is NOFT? Ninja Order Flow Trader.
What is Ninja Order Flow Trading? Quite simply, the company believes that a substantial trading edge can be revealed by analyzing trading volume, both accumulation and distribution throughout the trading day. The company also believes that they can exploit, monitor, and decipher the intentions of “large institutions”. They believe that they can teach people to how to consistently make money by learning how to exploit these relationships.
Order Flow Trading is nothing new. In fact, several companies have now developed sophisticated trading platforms that specifically analyze how volume moves through the exchanges. Order Flow trading indicators is currently the hottest fad within the technical trading community. This is really not that surprising, every few years a hot new way of looking at the markets explodes onto the scene. These trading ideas will inevitably grow old and tired, and then they fade away. Only to be replaced later by yet another technical analysis fad. Order Flow Trading is currently the “Kim Kardashian” of the trading world. Over the years, these trends change and educational providers are quick to create new trading products that promise riches and wealth. Unfortunately, this rarely happens. Lets take a look a just a couple of technical analysis trends over the years.
During the 1980’s, the era in which Japan dominated the world economy, everyone wanted a Japanese car and every kid wanted to be a ninja. A very clever marketer named Steve Nison noticed this trend and introduced the trading community to Japanese Candlestick charting. Steve did quite well for a number of years giving seminars on these supposed secretive and mystical chart patterns. Of course, we later learned that Steve Nison never traded successfully his entire career. But he was one heck of a great marketer and he sounded like he knew what he was talking about.
Trading educators are fun to watch in that when one trading educator starts making a lot of money selling some magic indicators, then the rest of the educators quickly pile in and attempt to grab as much of the market as possible A perfect example of the Japanese Candlestick craze was how Steve Bigalow came onto the scene after Steve Nison, and Steve Bigalow claimed that his Candlesticks were better. The spat between Bigelow and Nison eventually became comedy, where Bigalow would teach seminars and give lectures wearing only a karate outfit. Bigalow wanted to be more Japanese that Nison. Apparently he felt that wearing the karate outfit gave him more credibility.
During the 1990’s, the big trend was stochastics. George Lane was supposedly the originator and he offered a live course for $3,000 that supposedly taught the secrets of stochastics. Back in the 1990’s, before the internet, folks used to get on a plane and fly to various destinations to learn these magical trading techniques. I once flew to Wisconsin in January 1992 and spent a cold and depressing three days of my life watching old George trade is magic indicators. Unfortunately, I spent $3k to learn from old George. Later, after George passed away…all the secrets were revealed. George Lane never once had a profitable year trading. When I look back at those day’s, why didnt I ever ask George to see an account statement that proved that he actually traded? I guess I wanted to believe so badly that George could deliver me to the promised land of get rich quickness, or maybe I didn’t want to be rude by asking for proof that George traded.
In the mid 1990’s, after George introduced stochastics and was doing great with seminars and educational packages, an army of educators jumped on the band wagon and began selling stochastic learning packages for thousands of dollars. Just stop and think about this for only a moment, you can now quickly open up any trading platform and quickly place a stochastic indicator on any chart and it costs you nothing. But at one time, to get that indicator on your chart, you had to spend thousands of dollars for the calculations and the education on how to read the calculations.
Of course, now that we have back testing software, we can now quickly back test the stochastic’s indicator on a chart. Unfortunately, testing has revealed that stochastic’s is no more, or no less predictive than simply flipping a coin. However, for a good 10 years, stochastics was the hot thing for trading educators to sell. At that time, they were the “Kim Kardashian”. The educators made a lot of money, but the traders did not.
Order Flow Trading
Order Flow Trading is currently the hottest trend that educators are exploiting. Unfortunately, my reviews of order flow trading educators has not been very kind to this now popular form of technical analysis. Lets take a look at a few examples:
Trading The Tape. This guy claimed that he could read the order flow of the big institutions and that he was earning huge profits. He would be willing to show you his trading secrets for only $1750 per quarter. Unfortunately he turned out to be a fraud and a charlatan. No verifiable track record of trading whatsoever. In fact, he even refused to trade live in his very own live trading room. However, after the trading room closed, he always had profitable trades that happened during the evening hours. I call these types of trades mystery meat trades. The educator stuffs his performance resume with things we cannot easily discover or evaluate.
Market Delta Trading Room. A very nice piece of software that is based upon order flow and the footprint chart. The trading room is moderated by Anthony Drager, and he is considered to be an expert in order flow trading. As much as I personally like the software and the company owner, I found that the demonstrations of trading order flow to be useless. The trading room moderator, from all of my recordings and requests to verify trading performance turned up nothing that proves that this method works.
Trade Order Flow. This is yet another trading room and trading educator that specializes in deciphering the secrets of the, “institutional order flow”. For only $12,500 this educator will be more than happy to teach the secrets of order flow trading. However, this educator also turned out to be an outrageous con where the educator claimed she was making $10,000 each month because she too had learned the secrets of order flow trading. I later discovered that 6 months prior to her becoming an outrageously successful order flow trader, she was actually driving an ice cream truck around Long Island, New York. Hilarious stuff folks.
Emini Volume Trader. Yet another charlatan that claims that he, “will show exactly what the large money players (Institutions/ hedge funds) are doing and when they are increasing or decreasing their size of net open positions”. This guy turned about to be a complete and total buffoon that posted a fraudulent track record, lied about his trading success, and was caught red handed pulling off the scheme in over 20 hours of video recordings. Yet, still he persists in spreading more financial destruction and disappointment throughout the trading community.
The one thing that all of these characters have in common is that they claim that they can read institutional order flow through the use of an indicator. They believe that they can clearly see what a large institution or hedge fund is doing, and how to profit from their actions.
Friends, I am going to tell you something. For some, this might sound shocking. The banks and hedge funds that manage billions of dollars of investor funds are some of the smartest and most clever people that you will ever find. They have nearly unlimited resources and employ the best and the brightest computer engineers, scientists, physicists, and experienced traders that are complete and total killers. Do you really believe that you are going to buy an indicator for $12,500 from a lady that drives an ice cream truck around Long Island selling frosty pops, and she is going to tell you exactly what these financial killers are doing?
Over and over, time and again, I write reviews about trading educators that charge thousands of dollars to teach Joe and Mary Sixpack from Cleveland Ohio how to beat the likes of Renaisance Technologies. They claim that they know what these institutional guys are doing and how easy it is to beat them at their own game. Well, I implore you to read the many articles about RenTec and other firms specializing in high frequency trading. These are the people that are trading against you in the markets. They have hundreds of lighting fast computers, located in the exchange data center, trading in one and two lots trades, looking to capture nothing more than $1 or $2 in profit each trade. They don’t just crap out 500 block orders that you can exploit. They don leave a footprint whatsoever, everything they do is subtle and cold and calculating and ruthless.
The difference between the big prop firms like RenTec and these order flow educators? RENTEC publishes results. They make profits and they let everyone know about it. On the other hand, can someone please find me even a single one of these mystical readers of institutional order flow trading that is making verifiable profits? Where are the fucking account statements of you order flow assclowns? Ask these order flow idiots to see an account statement that verifies that they have ever made a profit with their whack-A-doodle and they only offer some recorded videos market replay. Where are the account statements you institutional order flow assclowns?
Assclown: One, who, through the fault of his parents conception, is a skid mark on society’s collective underwear.
Order Flow Trading: Like a venereal disease spreading ignorance?
Venereal disease spreads quickly. It hops from partner to partner. Some partners know that they have a venereal disease and yet they continue to sleep around, and with malice of forethought they simply refuse to treat the disease. They are focused on only their individual gratification, their own personal agenda, their own selfish needs. They care not about the partner, only about themselves. I would consider most trading educators to be the types of people that callously spread the disease of ignorance. Like a prostitute, for a price they are offering the illusion of gratitude, the promise of pleasure, a release from pain, the fulfillment of an unattainable or unrealistic fantasy.
In all of the trading educators that I have reviewed, all proclaiming to be able to divine the future from institutional order flow, not a single educator has been able to provide any proof that this method works. No account statements, no trading from the DOM, no trading from the charts. No proof whatsoever. So why does Order Flow Analysis continue to persist?
Why Order Flow Analysis Will Persist
The root problem with anyone offering order indicators is that they cannot be back tested. Its hard to quantify. Everything is subjective. There are always these well displayed examples of how there was thin volume at the top of a price range, and then volume surged and so the price continued higher! Unfortunately, there are just as many cases where the exact opposite happened. Order Flow Analysis is simply too subjective and interpretive. One person’s “flush out with high volume” is another person’s “flush out continuation pattern followed by a reversal”.
One of the people that I like to talk to about trading indicators and trends within the trading industry is a world famous trading educator, and a pretty good trader by the name of Larry Williams. Many of you know him, some do not. But Larry is awesome and he gave me an awesome quote, “Order Flow Analysis Indicators are like prisoners of war, beat on them long enough, and they will tell you whatever you want to hear”. Larry is awesome. “If these hsutlers know what the institutions are doing, then why in the hell are they selling these Order Flow Indicators? Hell, just make a ton of money and keep it for themselves”. I love Larry Williams.
The bottom line is that Order Flow Analysis will persist for some time, simply because it cannot be quantified. Its illusory. Its nearly impossible to back test. Its a squirrely and squishy idea that is nearly impossible to prove or disprove.
Order Flow Analysis is a trading educators absolute nirvana. The educator, usually quite deceptive and clever can literally find thousands of supposed examples of where order flow and volume became unbalanced and profits are easy. He can create hundreds of hours of video recordings that purport to show examples of when it worked and how well it worked.
For all of the hundreds of hours of videos that show supposed examples of when the institutions where “easy pickings”, none of these order flow educators can show an account statement that proves that their methods can earn a nickel in real time.
I have spent quite a bit of time talking about the latest and greatest indicator fad know as Order Flow Trading. Lets talk a moment about NOFT or Ninja Order Flow Trading. The company is owned by Christian Hoffman. Many of you have heard his name, he has been creating all sorts of trading software for several years now. Some of you might know of him through Ninjacators.com. Christian is a very clever guy. He gets it. He has made a nice career out of programming the losing ideas of retail traders into various trading platforms. I would consider Christian as a guy that understands that the retail trader is going to always be looking for a new indicator, and he is more than willing to code it and sell it. Nothing wrong with that. Recently, Christian and myself had a very open and honest conversation about NOFT and the industry in general. I found Christian to be delightfully honest, full of humor, a good attitude, and willing to debate with me a range of issues.
The first and biggest question that traders want to know, does NOFT actually fund traders? To date, NOFT has funded two traders. However, NOFT is basically a new company that has been in business for only a few months. It appears that they are attempting to blend into their educational product a sort of TopStepTrader program. But lets be completely honest, the NOFT funded trader program costs $4,000 just for the educational product, and then the trader must pay an additional $299 per month to potentially qualify for a funded account. Is this really such a good deal? NOFT, TopStepTrader, or anyone else running these funded trader schemes, I feel are just living on borrowed time.
What does a funded trading account with NOFT really mean? In speaking with Christian, he was completely honest in saying that he was not currently very comfortable with the funded trader idea. In fact, we both agreed that the funded trader program, at this time was more a side show than a functional entity. To date, I have uncovered quite a few trading educators offering a supposed funded trading account, only to discover that the funded trading accounts were just a marketing gimmick. Christian did not want me to get into the validation and authentificaton aspect of this portion of the NOFT business. My heart tells me that he knows that its a gimmick, but that everyone else is piling into the funded trader marketing gimmick and he feels left out.
In addition to Christian Hoffman, there are also a few other employees of NOFT. There are three salesman/educators by the names Troy Epperson, Kai Whitney, and Jonathon Moore. A quick search of Troy Epperson reveals that he has been selling trading products for over 10 years. In fact, I had a three way conversation with Troy and Christian that I found to be useful and honest. Troy is apparently the most experienced trader at NOFT and so I got right after him about personal trading performance. He was honest and very candid in describing his current duties as more of an educator and not as a full time trader. Most of the educators that I speak with just lie and tell me that they are making fat profits each day. But Troy just came right out and said that his current focus is on helping new traders become successful with his product.
Another salesman is Kai Whitney. He is a sort of a newbie trading educator. He originally got mixed up with the now notorious Global Trade Room. However, the con artist in chief, Simon Joseph unceremoniously fired Kai Whitney. Apparently Kai was not dishonest enough and Mr. Joseph is only looking for people that are willing to rob their own grandmothers. I have to congratulate Kai for getting fired.
Lastly, the final salesman is Jonathon Moore, whom is currently listed as the Director of Trading Education at Ninjacators. Not sure if Jonathon and myself are related.
No Bad Reputation
Part of the process of writing these reviews is running the names of all involved parties through the Google meat grinder. Looking for any dirt or negative postings on sites like BigMikes, RipOffReport, etc. All of these guys have been around for quite some time, and I would of expected to find more dirt. But not that much exists. A few gripes here and there. But I could not find any prison records, CFTC fraud convictions, NFA fines, SEC violations, etc. Pretty clean actually.
No Trading Records Or Proof Of Concept
Anyone that reads my reviews knows that I am real pain in the butt about verifying the trading performance of the educators that operate these trading rooms or selling trading educational products. As much I as personally like the openness and candor of the guys at NOFT, still I have nothing to verify performance. No account statements, no simulated trading results that I can independently verify, no nothing. Its frustrating for me becomes sometimes I really like the folks that I speak with, but as an advocate for the general public, its my job to be nasty and demand performance.
Another problem that I have with NOFT is that there is no live trading room. You simply pay the fee, and then gain access to hour upon hour of training videos that purport to show the mystery of institutional order flow trading in action. Am I calling the guys at NOFT hustlers and scam artists? No. But if a person is going to plunk down several thousand dollars to learn these amazing secrets, then they should at least have one person on staff that has a solid, legitimate, and verifiable track record that a potential customer can use as benchmark.
I have to give Christian a bit of credit for offering a couple of deal sweeteners that potential purchasers might find of interest. The first is that he is offering a 15 day refund period. If you are not happy, then you get your money back. ?The second is that NOFT has an interesting trading review program where a trader can submit their daily trading records and one of the staff at NOFT will individually critique the trades that were executed using the NOFT method.
My overall recommendation is that traders should avoid NOFT until one of the educational guys can provide proof of concept. Proof that this stuff actually works. Perhaps this review will inspire them to get on the ball.
Unlearning Bad Ideas
One of the problems with not verifying that a trading concept like NOFT actually works in real time is that the customer, after spending thousands of dollars on the educational product, and after losing yet thousands of dollars more attempting to convert will have to unlearn what they have learned. One of the coders that I speak with, whom specializes in creating custom indicators and trading systems loves to tell me stories of customers that will spend and spend in hopes of validating an idea that they purchased from a trading educator or read in a trading book.
Brokers also tell me of the same phenomenon where a customer will open an account and trade a faulty idea, with a proven negative expectancy until they go broke. They come back later and refill their trading account, hoping that the idea will finally hit pay dirt. The cycle repeats until the customer has destroyed several trading accounts, and then the customer goes looking for yet another trading educational product. Of course, there is always yet another trading educator waiting looking to sell his magic trading secrets.
Wrapping Things Up
Another day, another trading educator with zero track record. Normally I would smash up an educator like this, but I simply have no proof of any fraud. But that also does not mean that folks should enthusiastically throw their money at this product. Perhaps this review will inspire this educator to get busy and attempt to prove to the trading community that this order flow stuff is the real deal.
Thanks for reading and dont forget to leave your comments below. Also, if you know of any “Order Flow” trading rooms that have verifiable performance, then please leave a message below.
And where are the haters? Usually I get a lot more trolls willing to hurl insults at me. Please trolls, come back!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.