MT Predictor

MT Predictor
  • Honesty
    (2)
  • Quality
    (2)
  • Cost
    (2)
  • Support
    (2.5)
  • Verified Trades
    (1)
  • User Experience
    (1)
1.8

Summary

MT Predictor is yet another software/indicator suite built upon the assumption that Elliot Waves and Fibonacci patterns can be used to predict financial markets. The MT Predictor live trading room would be the perfect venue to prove that the software actually works. However, the live trading room is nothing more than a combination of sales infomercial and well selected chart analysis. No live, real time performance summary of the trading room. No track record of positive trading results for either the software developer or the software sales person. No statistical summary of the indicator suite, only rudimentary “It worked here, and it worked there” analysis. A positive review is awaiting-if the developer or sales staff can show a verifiable profit. Until then, avoid.

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User Review
2.9 (21 votes)
Comments Rating 0 (0 reviews)
Pros: Good sales presentation. Well developed and mature front end software application.
Cons: No track record of positive performance. Developer and sales person pushing the software cannot verify positive trading history. Live trading room is of little value. Underlying concept of software is highly ambiguous, esoteric, and open to many degrees of individual interpretation.

Thanks for reading today’s review of MT Predictor

What is MT Predictor? MT Predictor is quite simply an indicator suite and trade set-up scanner. The foundation of the product is based upon the underlying assumption that Elliot Waves and Fibonacci patterns display a predictive quality. The predictive quality, or “trading edge” can then be displayed using either the stand alone version (MTPredictor) or the indicators can be imported into Ninja Trader.

The cost of the stand alone version of MTPredictor is $2,495. There are no refunds. However, there is a 15 day trial period in which to evaluate the product. In addition to the one time fee of $3,495 for the software, you must also find a market data solution, which costs and additional layer of costs. The company currently recommends either IQFeed, BarChart, eSignal, or Metastock. Data fee’s range as low at only a few dollars for end of day data, to upwards of several hundreds of dollars for real time data.

MTPredictor indicators can also be imported into Ninja Trader at a one time cost of $2,495 per station. Once again, separate data fee’s can apply. However, the main disadvantage of Ninja Trader is that a person is now restricted to only Ninja Trader Brokerage.

MT Predictor Live Trading Room

MT Predictor does offer an accompanying, live trading room that is moderated by John Matteson. The live trading room operates Mon, Weds, and Friday from 10:30 AM EST to 11:30 AM EST. However, you will not find any live trading. Nor a trading DOM present on the screen, or a visual of a live trading account. There is no track record of any trades called inside of the trading room. The trading room is more of an hour long infomercial on how well the indicators worked on several, well selected charts.

Do Elliot Waves and Fibonacci Patterns actually work?

In the past two years, TradingSchools.Org has written about a multitude of companies that offer trading software based upon the esoteric concepts of Elliot Waves and Fibonacci. Some of thesetrump-golden-ratio-fibonacci companies include Back To The Future Trading, Profitunity, FX Groundwords, Indicator Warehouse, Nexgen Software, etc. None of these companies have been able to provide a statistically significant trading edge. None of these companies has gotten a positive review.

Is it really so difficult to get a positive review? Actually, it is quite easy. A software vendor can easily obtain a positive review by showing that either the software developers or an actual purchaser of the product has been able to consistently earn a positive income. Ultimately, this is all that matters. And with all of the mentioned vendors, none can provide even a morsel of evidence that profits are being made.

Consider this…MT Predictor has been selling trading software for the past 16 years, and with such a large time window, it is unreasonable to ask that the developer proffer some sort of proof of concept? Is is unreasonable to ask the trading room moderator to produce a redacted account statement?

Unfortunately, neither the developers of the software (Steve Griffiths), nor the salesperson (John Matteson) were able to produce a brokerage statement that verifies if they have been able to product a profit.

Wrapping Things Up

In my opinion, one of the most frustrating aspects of reviewing trading software and live trading rooms is that these companies expect consumers to pay thousand of dollars in up front fee’s, and hundreds of hours learning a trading concept. Yet, are unwilling to trade the product themselves. They expect consumers to simply trust, and hope that it works. Unfortunitely, the vast majority fail, because the concepts that are taught are built upon a ruinous and unproven foundation.

I would love to draft a new review of MT Predictor software. Would love to write nice things about Steve and Mark, but I need some sort of proof that this stuff actually works. And I cannot think of a good reason why they will not release trading records. Can you?

Thanks for reading. Don’t forget to leave a comment below.

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1 year ago

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Rick
Rick
2 years ago

I feel a need to post my feelings on the MTPredictor software package. I really feel it is a great package although is not a red/green indicator, but rather very gray. You need many hours of observation to get to where you can determine a trade that is worth taking from one to be avoided.
My problem in becoming profitable stems mostly from my inability to stay in a trade long enough to realize the kinds of moves dictated by the software which are a minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio trade. Backtesting has proven several times that the process works, but I need to continue my regimen of self improvement to improve my results. I believe it becomes quite profitable if the procedure is followed correctly.
Another defect in my approach was pointed out to me by a friend from another brokerage. I was looking at too many markets and getting distracted from the attention needed to be prepared to take the “right trade”. I have recently joined a trading room to try to correct that flaw. They look at only 2 markets and I feel it helps me greatly. This room has no affiliation with MTP, but it helps.
Emmett mentions that no broker statements were available for either Steve or John. I have no answer for that other than Steve(as Emmett mentions) has been at this for a long time and in my opinion is ready for a change, and John has moved on. So, somebody, make him an offer he can’t refuse and let’s get on with it.
Lastly, the prices mentioned on this site are not entirely correct. It would be best to look at the website to determine the prices as well as go over the wealth of info that is presented there.

dtchum
dtchum
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

@Rick – They say the best cons are the ones where you don’t even realize you’ve been scammed. Watch the movie “The Sting” to see what I mean. The people conned usually all hold true to one belief: they all felt it was their fault somehow.

Rick
Rick
2 years ago
Reply to  dtchum

dtchum, read the post. I said my inability to stay in a trade is the main reason that I am not profitable. If you trade, I’m sure you know what I mean.

David
David
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

Owner of mtpredictor by his own admission could not trade profitably so he created the company to make money, you can keep thinking it’s your fault of course.

dtchum
dtchum
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

Of course, Rick. That’s the beauty of a good con. Even after the fact, you still have not realized what really happened. Good luck with the next set of magic beans that you buy.

Zeke
Zeke
3 years ago

BE AWARE !!!!

MTPredictor is NOT profitable. I lost my $20k in 3 months with MTPredictor. I followed MTPredictor’s automated trade setups (TS1, TS2, DP…) and that’s the way i lost my 20k equity (had 1 to 5 losing trades per day – every day). I informed software vendor about my losses and false trade signals. He said MTPredictor is not black box system and that i need to learn the proper way to use it. I guess i just did not learn how to take cherry pick trades like in their Live Trading Room.

Have not seen positive trading history by software vendor Steve. Have not met profitable MTPredictor trader also! All i have heard is losses after losses!

I had better trading results with MACD and RSI before using MTPredictor software.

What i learned by using MTPredictor is that easiest way to get rich is to sell trading software, not to trade !

xxx
xxx
3 years ago

I never buy forex software. If it really making profit .,, they will keep it never sale it Lol

dtchurn
dtchurn
4 years ago

I’ll just add what everyone wise to these junk indicators already know. MTPredictor is a piece of junk indicator set that seemed to have been an alternative to AdvancedGET in those early year when expensive elliot wave software seemed to be the fad among the earlier duped generation of newb retailers. Over the years, they continued to keep it a black box mystique about it despite no reports of anyone ever becoming successful using it. As long as there are still newcomers to the retail market, some may still get caught up in it if they’re not wise to the likelyhood most all indicators sold aren’t any better than free downloads or those on big mike’s. good luck.

Graham
Graham
4 years ago

In the same way as trading in general. probably only about 5% of MTP purchasers make money with it. It is full of ambiguities and contradictions and must be put in the ‘subjective/discretionary’ system category. Up to now it has been very difficult to assess whether it is profitable based on the system generated signals, due partly to the rather useless STF trend indicator which sometimes users were told they should have ignored and other times they were told they should have respected. This indicator is now being replaced by an indicator based on the major swings to determine trend direction. So it should be easy soon to establish whether system generated signals are profitable or not. The ($495) upgrade will also allow users to see ‘Holy Grail’ trade setups (wave 3 trades) which were previously often hidden due to a Risk/Reward fault in the software. It also introduces a new volume spike setup.
I have been a user for a few years and find that the software and support are good. But profitability will only come after hundreds of screen hours and serious losses. The big psychological challenge is can you hold onto trades to reap the big RR returns when you have just had multiple losers in a row ? The urge to just get back to breakeven is extreme.
Steve and John keep referring to ‘small’ controlled losses of 2% on a (hypothetical) 20K account. This is $400 a pop and it is very unlikely that a $20 K account and its owner can withstand such levels of multiple losses without everything going pear-shaped.
The ‘Trading Room’ sessions are useful but as they are only an hour a week (the other hour is mainly just sales) they focus on what you could/should have done rather than anything to do with live trading.

MrUnderwter
MrUnderwter
4 years ago
Reply to  Graham

As per my post above. Most wanna be traders are not ready for losing streaks of up to 10 or 12. My largest with MTP was 13 in a row. I then made a rule with my own trading plan that said I would stop a 3 losses in a row. And that just had the effect of making me miss the odd larger R winner. It became futile to trade it. When I asked Steve G for help I got zero help. Nothing. De nada. He just said he would not be drawn to comment on individual trades. But then he sends out a cherry picked trade each day by email. That’s cruel. If that’s what you want as a trading software supplier then be my guest and pay up for MTP.

And $500 to fix a bug…..that echos my post above and just shows what you are up against. On support – never really needed any but the bugs I reported never got fixed and even now lines I draws on the charts move around. Workspaces corrupt and that means setting up charts again. That’s why I use it for long term direction only.

The positive for MTP I found is that it teaches you about Risk and Reward but once you know that you need to see someone do it live with real money. Then you can have faith when it does not work and take the next trade as your mentor is losing/winning with you. Emmet has posted a few places where you can get this type of training. Spend your education money there. And buy the Van Tharp peak performance course to get your head sorted a little before you even start to trade real money. That part takes time. Remember. most in the trading software industry offers licenses for life generally……why….because they know if you subscribe then they wont make any big money in the long term as most will be out of the game with blown accounts in a short space of time.

Tamiaya
4 years ago
Reply to  MrUnderwter

When looking at a trading system, a measure of comparison commonly used is Profit Factor. 2 systems with the same profit factor are not equal.

For example, System 1 has a 80% win rate and a reward of only 1/2 the risk, and a Profit Factor of 2.0
System 2 has a win rate of 40% and a reward of 3 times the risk, and also has a Profit Factor of 2.0

However, with System 2, you have a 13.5% probability of losing 11 trades in a row. And what if you are trading 2 similar systems that give a run of losers at the same time. Can your account survive? Can you pull the trigger after losing a dozen or more trades in a row? Are you enjoying that type of System journey? On the other hand, System 1 has only a 7.2% probability of losing 4 trades in a row.

MTP is like System 2, but with an even lower win percentage, and a Profit Factor nearing 1.0 Avoid like the plague.

Attached is a Frequency Reference Guide for consecutive losing trades.

rtchoke
4 years ago
Reply to  Tamiaya

Tamiaya makes a really good point. You have to imagine yourself losing 11 trades in a row. And how much will each trade cost you? How much in the hole will you be before the next profitable trade? Will you still take the next trade. I know a lot of professional traders including a hedge fund manager who manages traders. Each trader has to define his maximum drawdown before he will be funded. If his losses exceed his drawdown parameters, he’s cut off. Do you think any of them would accept 11 or more losing trades in a row and risk losing that funding? Especially if you have a small account, ask yourself these questions and be sure you have the psychological mindset to deal with the win percentages that you are comfortable with and that suit your style of trading.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  MrUnderwter

@MrUnderwater

Thank you for sharing your experience.

At the end of the day, MTPredictor is a business. And like all businesses they need to make money.

Their business model is to fleece as much out of the struggling trader as they possibly can before that trader realizes the software is near on useless.

What better way to keep traders on their payroll but with upgrades and ‘must have’ add on modules.

Unfortunately, the average trader is currently on their 12th losing trade and will do anything to turn their trading around and of course buy any upgrade they offer.

Just look at the traders whom have come forward. Isn’t that saying something?

There is no way MTPredictor can turn this around. All Emmett is asking for is proof that their software is in some way profitable. If a piece of software advertised to help you, isn’t profitable then there is ZERO point in shelling out the dollars to install it.

Simple as that.

MrUnderwter
MrUnderwter
4 years ago

I was thinking of the positives for MTP. They are….

If you use EW analysis MTP gives a simplified approach and the waves do not change (unlike say Advanced GET).

And that’s about it.

As a side remark…..Some years back, I actually spoke with another MTP user who I managed to contact through their old forum which is now defunct. He told me that Steve Griffiths told him personally that he blew out a number of his own accounts so he stopped trading altogether. Note – This was after I offered SG any price to go sit with the master himself and trade together so I could be as good as he is LOL

Lucky7
Lucky7
4 years ago

IMO an indicator is just a tool. It alone will not make you profitable. You can have the best canvas, brushes, colors in the world but if you’re a crappy artist you will not get good results. Give those same tools to Michelangelo and you will have a masterpiece.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  Lucky7

Yes you are right. But in this case if MTPredictor is “predicting” (via automatic setups) the trades for you, both the crappy traders and the good traders should be executing them in exactly the same way on the same ‘canvas’ using the same ‘paint’, ‘brushes’ and ‘colors’. If the good traders skip the losing trades that MTPredictor continuously spits out, then something else is in play on a discretionary basis unrelated to the software, which then makes the software questionable at best.

The software may “work” and look great, and they may post videos on YouTube stating how great their system was at catching the bottom of the market, but they don’t tell you the string of losing trades before that and how deep into drawdown you would have to go prior to that point. Add in commissions and I bet MTPredictor isn’t profitable.

If nobody has come forward with verifiable proof that MTPredictor is profitable, then we have to assume it isn’t.

It doesn’t get simpler than that.

Stray Dog
Stray Dog
4 years ago

Agreed. If the logic of Winter is Coming’s post doesn’t convince you then read Tamiaya post above. The only sensible conclusion, based on the evidence, is that the software is breakeven at best and hell on your nerves if you have the stomach to ride out the drawn downs.

Tamiaya
4 years ago

I have the MTPredictor Software for Ninjatrader. If you want to manually plot Motive or Corrective Waves, the software will do a decent job of that. However, if you use the software generated entries and exits …. the win percentage of trades averaged out to be 28% with a a Reward to Risk of 1.9. Deducting for commissions, the system was basically break even. Adding 1 or 2 filters did increase the profit factor somewhat, but not large enough with their system to stomach having to sit through large system pullbacks and corrections. MTPredictor remains to this day in my indicator scrap pile.

Tamiaya
4 years ago
Reply to  Tamiaya

In addition, with such a low win rate, you can have a dozen losers in a row. Not many people can tolerate that mentally for the reward of breaking even.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  Tamiaya

I will almost bet a 13/48 Moving Average Crossover strategy is more profitable.

Dinas
4 years ago

Guess you didn’t do your homework on this one. I did find some data here:
http://www.mtpredictor.us/software/performance/
I have been in the trading room for a while and John does trade his account live when there is a valid setup which for him is usually the gap trades. You can tell it is live and a real money account because he uses their trade module which shows if it is a sim account or live, real money account and he trades right through the chart which is nice.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
3 years ago
Reply to  Emmett Moore

Isn’t it amazing. This is by far best stage for a vendor to defend / promote their product via proof of profitability.

MTPredictor feel they have to keep posting hindsight videos on their website of their software nailing the bottom in this market, nailing the top of that market. The problem is, all these were all non-traded signals by them (prove me otherwise MT) and they don’t post videos of the string of 6 losses prior!

It is so easy for them to promote, upsell and bleed their subscribers dry, but they have no desire or inclination to prove that their software works long term and helps the trader become profitable. They hide behind the plausible deniability that it is the users fault

If you searched in Google and you found this thread. I beg you, please do not have anything to do with the software that this vendor is promoting.

As of writing this, 21 September 21, 2016 – there is ZERO verifiable proof that using this software will make you profitable OR help your trading become profitable.

Over to you MT. Give us 1 weeks worth of trades matched to MT Predictor signals. I mean as you are so good at making YouTube videos, why not show your DOM at the same time? Oh darn, I know why….

kenneth
kenneth
4 years ago
Reply to  Dinas

So the room usually trades a gap trade, which is not actually a signal created by the software, but something the room operator likes?

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  Dinas

This is meaningless.

Head over to https://optimusfutures.isystems.com/ and you will see hundreds of systems with hypothetical track records, just like the one shown here. Without verifiable trading statements that these MTPredictor signals were actually traded, you cannot and I mean cannot consider this to be any more relevant than a made up Excel spreadsheet.

So Dinas unless you want to prove otherwise (or anybody at MTPredictor for that matter) – I will take your post and link as being irrelevant.

Almost spring here
Almost spring here
4 years ago

I think your responses are irrelevant. It shows that you haven’t used the system, haven’t listen to the setup rules and haven’t got a clue what MTP is all about. You should stop writing about things you don’t know nothing about.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago

What difference does it make if I haven’t used the software? What difference does it make if I don’t know the setup rules?

Not a single trader, including (MTPredictor themselves) can verify that knowing the software and knowing the setup rules makes MTPredictor profitable. So what difference does it make again?

If you are saying that knowing the software inside and out makes MTPredictor profitable, prove it – because there are traders on here that have stated it isn’t profitable. So it must be because they are poor traders, correct? Or they don’t know how to use the software?

You have the floor to prove otherwise. I suspect though you will just dance around the question and fire back some response to try and discredit what we are saying.

Listen up new traders – MTPredictor is unproven to be profitable on a continual basis.

Verifiable trading statements that can be matched to each MTPredictor trade is all we ask for but they are absent.

Let’s try for 1 month of statements and go from there. Anyone?

rtchoke
4 years ago
Reply to  Emmett Moore

Emmett, as long as I have been watching your site, I have seen you ask for verifiable brokerage statements proving what each vendor claims he or his product can do. And each time you offer to rewrite the review in a positive light if they can show such proof. Yet in almost all of the cases, no statement or verifiable evidence of proof has been offered.

I’m curious. How many, if any, have sent you verifiable proof, either brokerage statements or a willingness to show their site and them taking real time trades in front of those watching — with entries and exits (not sim — anybody can trade sim, real traders use real money). Can you give numbers, ie, 95% don’t show real proof or 3% actually trade real money live on their chart.

Great site, thanks for you efforts which I’m sure take a lot of time and work.

Ben Maltz
Ben Maltz
4 years ago

Are you using the same MT Predictor that I am? I find MT Predictor quite useful in identifying trades and setting the proper position size (based on your account size and the risk ion a specific trade setup). I makes trading Fibonacci techniques quite easy. I also do NOT understand most of the grades you’ve given to the software and its publisher. I have had very quite and effective responses whenever I’ve submitted a question (which has been several dozen times). I CERTAINLY find them to be honest in all their dealings with me. So, I think you need to re-assess your evaluations.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  Ben Maltz

So Ben, put this to bed for everybody on here.

Do you use MTPredictor software and trade live? Yes or no?
Are you consistently profitable using MTPredictor? Yes or no?
Would you be willing to post a month of verifiable trades that can be matched to MTPredictor trades that are triggered. Yes or no?

I know this is a little work, but unless you can prove it, the folk on here will just assume you are a shill.

Stray Dog
Stray Dog
4 years ago

Well said Winter. The people posting a defense of MT Predictor should be able to back this up with proof. So far requests to do this have been met with silence.

kenneth
kenneth
4 years ago
Reply to  Stray Dog

The developer of MTP mailed his customers yesterday asking to put positive reviews and comments on this site and on big mikes forum, so we will never know if people were willing to defend it if not being asked directly or its simply people think the developer is a nice guy and help him out.

dtchurn
dtchurn
3 years ago
Reply to  kenneth

It’s the “denial of buyer remorse” syndrome. They bank on the psychology that bilked clients overpaid for their software and have to justify that it was a good purchase. They contribute to the monthly churn of new buyers then there is a “kool-aid” phase where the denial could last a month or less up to a year or more. Like someone buying a hyundai and having to drive it before finally ditching it.

Rob B
Rob B
3 years ago
Reply to  dtchurn

I thought the Hyundai genesis was getting good review over the Mustang.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77MstcS02Z8

dtchurn
dtchurn
3 years ago
Reply to  Rob B

The quality of Ford cars hasn’t exactly been the best in it’s history. Hyundai experimenters move on after a kool-aid phase.

dtchurn
dtchurn
3 years ago
Reply to  dtchurn

Well to backtrack,comparing MTP to a hyundai isn’t the best analogy seeing that most all signalling software sold to retailers aren’t even consistent to begin with. The main point is denial or delayed buyer remorse often results in little or no actual reviews or feedback to warn others.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
3 years ago
Reply to  dtchurn

@ dtchurn

Agreed, partly because of shear embarrassment. The trader is either embarrassed that they bought the damn thing in the first place and don’t want to appear a loser and admit it. Or of course they are embarrassed they can’t make it work as well as the developers say it “should” or “will” work.

I can honestly say I don’t know how the developers sleep at night. Is it because a newbie just dumped them $2,350?

They are at it again with their latest video “MTPredictor Holy Grail sell on NQ catches the sharp fall”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1vL30MCEDA

This trade was not taken and they openly admit that themselves. I am sure it isn’t difficult to spread MTPredictor across multiple instruments and find a holy grail setup each and every day. Anybody can do that with moving averages easily enough.

Both MTPREDICTOR.US and MTPREDICTOR.COM are registered out of the US but their sales denominations are in USD. So they have intent to sell into the US market. That will be an important factor going forward.

I am tempted to take the 15 Day Trial myself. They charge $95.00 (what a joke charging for a trial).

As a professional day trader I could evaluate myself, but there will be cries of foul play if I do it. So one of my trading buddies who is a licensed broker said he will do it for me, if only to shut me up!

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
3 years ago
Reply to  dtchurn

Exactly. MTPredictor have been pumping their software for years now and getting away with it.

They are choking on their own kool aid because they truly believe it works. The newbie trader comes along and they start believing it too. Heck, the newbie will even defend the vendor for a while, until they being to realise the software is next to useless. It ends up on the scrap heap until they can finally publically reveal how truly rubbish the software is. Step in TS for them to be able to do that. Bravo.

Out of every trader I know, not a single one uses software like MTPredictor, BackToTheFuture or any other crappy system like that. They use a combination of order flow, footprint and volume. That is it. Period. End of story.

In fact they even wonder why I give a shit and come to places like TS. The reason is because I want all these vendors to crash and burn unless they can actually prove their product can help a trader become profitable. Plausible Deniability is not an excuse and I am getting sick of vendors passing the buck to the trader saying “it is all your fault!”.

If MTPredictor want to turn this around they need to quit marketing, quit cherry picking trades and concentrate on trading their product publically. They need to host, record and post an open trading room for 3 months and live feed throughout every RTH day concentrating on a single market. The ES for example.

Whenever the MTPredictor software fires off a trade they need to be clear why they would avoid that trade or why they would take it. The reason is because they claim you should trade only when the ‘coast is clear’.

Well MTPredictor crew, define it. Publically build the framework, build the execution strategy for all to see on a consistent basis. Oh and of course post your daily trading statements to ensure the trades (winners and losers) were actually taken from a live account.

All algorithmic software has good days, some have outlier days, but they don’t have consistency. The discretionary part is most important to decipher potentially good signals vs. bad ones.

The problem is, MTPredictor won’t do this because they fear their software won’t be profitable in the public eye and their façade will come crashing down.

So Emmett, let’s challenge them to do this. You must have their contact details, right? The ball is in their court. Let’s wait for the excuses to start rolling in….

David
David
3 years ago

I remember somoene posted they already had trading room which miserably failed, MT Predictor “expert” just couldn’ do it publicly. No need to challenge them, it’s all clear already.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
3 years ago
Reply to  David

@ David

Enough said then!

Still, if I was a vendor and I really had belief in my own product, I would take up this challenge just to prove everybody wrong.

We all know the MTPredictor software is a turd. And you can’t polish a turd.

MrUnderwater
MrUnderwater
4 years ago

I own MTP and have used it in the past for live account trading (roughly 2 years I struggled with it) but like any trading tool it needs you to keep the faith and discipline and master that b4 committing cash to it. I lost money with it, by the boat load. It has many problems as a methodology for day trading….especially if you have to make a living. Be aware that the method will yield a win rate of 35-40% even though it will have a positive expectancy overall. This means large drawdowns and big wins to make up the losses. You have to have your head ready for that. And you need to sit there all day and not take a break else you might miss the winning trade that recovers your many 1R losses. Slippage and commission does materially affect things as well. It can make drawdowns larger as your size can vary depending on the entry bars total size as you risk a %age of the account on each trade which may mean 1 contract on 1 trade or 12 on the next.

If you trade the smaller time frames you likely be trading the eminis as they recommend. But…..you will have multiple setups pop up on the charts at the same time very often (eg, the ES and YM and NQ setup within mins of each other). You then have to take a trade on one of them and which one…answer the best looking one (or highest RR / best trend in force). Problem…..chances are that the one you pick (say the ES) will be stopped out while one of the others work out…….very frustrating. Could you take trades on all 3 charts …. not unless you have a good mouse skills, keyboard skills, abilities to manage multiple trades at the same time, stay focused and of course an appetite for extra risk as you are doing multiple correlated trades. Not impossible but hard. More than the average Joe should try I can tell you. Don’t get caught up with the I like a challenge idea. You will lose all your cash and the 16R winner you missed while in the can will make you sick.

Just be more annoying any setup can get stopped out multiple times before going on to be a winner after a couple of stopped attempts. After the 2nd entry and stop out on a setup it is VERY hard to take the 3rd entry………and if you do take it…you will of course get stopped out…..if you don’t take it then it will work out and give you your 2R back. Believe me….this type of situation occurs very regularly and its soul destroying unless you have rock hard discipline and legendary psychological prowess. If you have that you could do OK.

Also, the software has bugs that never seem to be fixed from one update to the next.

Cruelly, MTP like to milk you for as many extra modules as they can and for any new release that has something more useful in it that really should have been there in the first place.

In the end, it may suit you or it may not. You wont get anything from Steve Griffiths in the way of live trading account statements (or from any of his successful users) and no matter what cash you offer him he wont trade with you live. I know this as I offered to pay him any fee to trade with him at his offices in Bristol or wherever he would like. He refused … saying that he has a software company to run and does not have time to trade with me even if I paid him. LOL

To be clear I do not use it for live trading anymore but use it for long term trading as the Elliot stuff is more reliable IME on larger charts (daily upwards).

You should also be aware they did a live trading room for a while with an ex pit trader who did trade live with a DOM now and again but he would just take any trade he felt would work and ignore most setups. He was a complete and utter idiot and well … they closed him down after a while. Gotta laugh……IME best avoided unless your suited to the low win rate compensated with occasional high R return winners ….the equity rollercoaster kind of a trading style.

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago

I knew it. Emmett I am pleased that the veil has finally been lifted on these guys. They don’t trade their own software. They don’t trade live. Basically they don’t trade at all. However, they do expect people to stump up the cost of their software, backed by nothing!

I call these types of vendors, fiat vendors. The only reason there is a monetary value on their software is because they put it there. Otherwise it is backed by nothing at all.

@swatfa – your response is totally flawed. If a vendor is stating “MTPredictor VS Buy nails the Low of the Day on Aug 12” or “MTPredictor Holy Grail TS1 buy on the YM nails the Low” – surely the vendor should be able to prove that it was indeed traded and tradable. I can cherry pick thousands of instances where the stars align on ‘box standard’ indicators in NinjaTrader. Should I make a YouTube video stating that “RSI and MACD BUY nails the Low of the Day on Aug 12”? Because that is all these charlatans are doing. They forgot about the instances where their indicator package also had a string of losses that far exceeded their wins.

It is all very well to state ‘Bad money management and no comprehensive strategy’ – but that is just an excuse by the vendors that their indicators are no better than out of the box ones. They can’t on one hand advertise how amazing and predictable their indicators are, and then push the blame squarely on the trader for their failure. That is the vendor’s get out clause every single time and it makes me sick.

I am a full time trader and I code my own indicators in NinjaTrader. I can tell you that MTPredictor can be replicated quite easily and very cheaply. There is NOTHING special about their software.

Emmett has exposed more charlatans. The bottom line yet again – there is no verifiable evidence that MTPredictor is traded by the vendor, that MTPredictor is profitable and that MTPredictor works. Verifiable by means of authenticated trading statements.

Simon Watfa
Simon Watfa
4 years ago

@Winter is coming, i never commented on their marketing. I’m aware that almost every vendor whether saint or sinner promises everything under the sun -They’re in the software selling business – almost every software provider that i’ve come across practices the same tactics. The whole business is shady, but that doesn’t mean what they’re selling is snake oil. If you’re able to replicate their software that’s great, perhaps selling it might be profitable…

Furthermore as a developer you should know more than anyone here that there is no magic formula, so i find some irony in your excitement for having these charlatans “exposed” – would you be considered a great trader? if not, which do we criticize, your programming skills or your trading skills?
I don’t mean this in insulting manner, i’m simply curious how one developer would critique another developer’s work

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  Simon Watfa

Fair comments.

Excitement may be the wrong word, but elation yes. My reason is fairly simple. I have been there, done that and got the t-shirt when it comes to getting my trading “education”. I have fallen for the best looking software, best sales pitches and I have painted the walls in many trading rooms. I have even given evidence to the CFTC on a vendor, whom subsequently got charged with fraud.

It took me a while to realise that there is only one person whom can teach me to trade and that is me.

These vendors know exactly how to reel the new traders in and get them to spend thousands on their software, that in reality costs very little to put together. Combine that with the fact that they are really no better than stock indicators, it niggles me that these vendors can’t provide a single shred of evidence that their indicators are profitable. Sure they might work like they say, but can they be traded and do they make profit? Without a single piece of verifiable proof it is hard to give any vendor credit.

I am a single trader whom has no voice. Emmett at least has a voice and can make people aware that when you take the rose coloured spectacles off, reality is a very dull grey. So that is why I get elated when I see him expose the cracks.

Am I a great trader? No. I think I am a good trader though. I would certainly critique my coding before my trading, but then again I am not selling anything so I don’t need to be concerned about that. Their work looks very professional and no doubt they can write code.

MTPredictor are quoting on their front page “Control your trading risk and win” – they are being very clever here because they don’t proffer that as a statement on their product, just a general tag line. To the average Joe Blow – they will start to believe that by using MTPredictor they can reduce their risk and win. Which is not true as MTPredictor can’t verify their software accuracy from within a live trading environment.

rtchoke
4 years ago

To me, indicators are simply confirmation of what price is doing. Indicators don’t make you money, only price does that. In my trading, I use 1 indicator but it is simply to confirm my entry or to indicate that price may be at one of my targets and I should take profit.

I also use multiple time frames and the price on the higher time frame there serves as an “indicator” for the lower time frame (ie, big fish eat the little fish). Just my 2 cents.

I would suggest to anyone beginning trading to start by looking at a basic price chart. Note the highs, the lows, the support, the resistance. Get used to that before you begin to use any indicator that is advertised as the Holy Grail.

System trader
System trader
4 years ago

As a system trader (and a mathematician and an engineer), I can tell you categorically: there is NO edge on fibonacci I wish was that easy! Don’t waste your time. Thanks for exposing these vendors. Fibs are a curiosity for after the fact trading, you will always find a level that ‘more or less’ fit the past. If you dispute this, show me your data.

Simon Watfa
Simon Watfa
4 years ago
Reply to  System trader

i trade with fibonacci indicators everyday. Live trades. I have very clear plotted lines for fibonacci and i trade them as support/resistance as the candlestick approaches them.

Does it work all the time? no, but a conservative 60-65% of the time. +/- 2 or 3 ticks. It remarkable how many times i’ve seen price come to a stop around these zones.

i don’t mind sharing redacted real account statements or screenshots, not blowing hot air here.

It’s worth noting that i dont use fibonacci exclusively, but i do use it as a very key part of my overall strategy

System trader
System trader
4 years ago
Reply to  Simon Watfa

The ‘supposed’ edge is due to existing support/resistance levels and other factors (volume profile traders at level, other fib traders, etc…). Fibs alone will not get you anywhere. Therefore, if Fibs will not help you why use them? Try to remove them and you will see that your overall results will not be affected at all if you know how to trade price action and order flow (if not improved!) Why? Because statistically the edge is marginal if any. This small edge will not put you beyond your commissions + slippage. Ask any system trader. As a system trader that tried to find an edge with Fibs for a long time, I found that they are nothing more than an ‘illusion’. Again, I wish it would be that easy. In discretionary trading the odds are even worse. If it helps you to give you confidence to take the trade more power to you. Our brains are trained to recognize patterns. I could come up with 4 levels at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% and they would be as good as any Fib levels.

sunil
3 years ago
Reply to  Simon Watfa

its not just fibs….your whole accumulated experience and skills are in play when you make your decisions…BUT may appears as its only the fibs.

t0030tr
t0030tr
3 years ago
Reply to  System trader

Nothing works all the time, but I think your quick dismissal of Fibonacci based on your background is short sighted. Fibs do work, I see them work all the time.

sunil
3 years ago
Reply to  System trader

In my opinion, fibs just provide you a refernce level to develop some perspective…when you have none.and thats it

avgdwner
avgdwner
4 years ago

Good points. I’ve constantly seen examples of other vendors who don’t use their own software, much less even trade, and don’t even trade sim if they can get away with calling out trades trickery. Sometimes they put the effort in marketing or “trader news” such as Skyes or Marcello. Or it may just be one of several sites or businesses such as barrybburns.

swatfa
4 years ago

Respectfully, i think you may be guilty of over-simplifying something as complex as trading.

Does fibonacci work in trading? Certainly, i’ve used software from nexgen as well as others and it clearly plots (let’s say a modest 70% of the time) correct support and resistance lines. Do elliot waves work in trading? Certainly, again 65-70% of the time you will see the same behaviour in the fifth wave etc.

Do indicators that help plot elliot waves or fibonacci trading provide you with an edge? Yes, absolutely, without a shadow of a doubt. But this is where things start to go pear shaped. I’ve seen people trade with these indicators and utilize them within a sound strategy that makes them profitable, and i’ve seen people that try to trade using these indicators exclusively and they fail miserably.

Interestingly i’ve come across amazing developers on forums like elitetrader and futures.io that produce great indicators that have helped me a lot, yet these developers are not that successful at trading? Why? the usual hullabaloo; Bad money management, no comprehensive strategy etc etc,

I guess what i’m trying to say is it feels like you’re examining everything with the same lens. For example an engineer may produce a beast like a Porsche 918, but it certainly doesn’t mean he knows how to drive it or race it.

Pekelo
Pekelo
4 years ago
Reply to  swatfa

You are saying it is money management what makes money for those traders and not the software itself. Guess what, you could be profitable with my magic 8 ball if you use good money management. It is the exit what determines the outcome not the entry….

Simon Watfa
Simon Watfa
4 years ago
Reply to  Pekelo

No that’s not at all what im saying. I clearly stated that things like fibonacci and elliot waves provided a good edge, what i implied was that using them stand-alone was not effective, meaning if someone purchased these indicators and was expecting to make consistent profit they would be foolish.

In short, a good strategy + good money management tends to work. Your magic 8 ball is hardly a good strategy.

Also, your point about the exit determining the outcome is correct….hence –> money management (stop loss, profit limit for the day, max number of trades etc)

Winter Is Coming
Winter Is Coming
4 years ago
Reply to  Simon Watfa

Simon – you are missing our point.

MTPredictor advertise this “It does not matter what markets you trade, MTPredictor is there for you finding trades and helping you control your trading risk.”

Should they also state then “Oh and by the way on their own our indicators are quite rubbish. You need to have a 3 year background in TA, a course by Tony Caldero on Elliott Wave and some additional confirmation indicators from Futures.io so you can filter out the bad trades our system gives and let the winning trades run”.

Almost spring here
Almost spring here
4 years ago

I use MTP on daily Forex charts.Taking a random chart, EUR/USD, had 4 system generated setups since January 2016. One not taken , against trend, three winners, with a total of 16.2 R.
You can fill in the R what is acceptable to you and I challenge to to prove to me that this MTP system is a rip of.

sunil
3 years ago
Reply to  Emmett Moore

Any evaluation has a merit if its objective…and unless quantifiable and verifiable…any results are just a possibility.

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